Migration Trends in Hawaii: A Complex Picture
Despite popular belief that Hawaii is experiencing a significant out-migration of its residents, recent analysis by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) offers a more nuanced view. JoonYup Park, an assistant professor in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, discovered that while approximately 58,000 individuals left Hawaii in 2023—primarily relocating to California, Washington, and Texas—this figure was nearly balanced by the influx of newcomers to Hawaii from other states.
The demographic breakdown of those leaving Hawaii reveals that 54% were white, with Hispanic (20%), Black (9%), and Asian (9%) individuals following. Notably, only about 1% identified as Hawaiian or Pacific Islander. Park’s research indicates that common assumptions regarding out-migration, particularly that younger individuals seek better opportunities or that older inhabitants are relocating for lifestyle changes, do not accurately reflect the data.
Interestingly, 2023 marked the first year from 2010 to 2023, excluding the pandemic-influenced year of 2021, without a net population loss due to domestic migration. When international migration is included, Hawaii has generally maintained a positive net-migration rate. Most new arrivals in 2023 were also predominantly white (45%), followed by Hispanic (17%) and Asian (16%) individuals.
Park noted a trend indicating that most net population gains come from individuals aged 25 to 44, a prime working demographic, which contradicts perceptions of mass exodus among young residents. Although children under 18 showed a negative net migration, the rebound of locally born residents returning to the islands, exemplified by 12,100 returnees compared to 6,400 who left, suggests a promising shift in Hawaii’s overall migration narrative.
For more insights, Michael Tsai covers local and state politics for Spectrum News Hawaii.
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